How a widening field of suitors — from the United States and China to the Gulf states — is reshaping the terms on which Africa engages the world.
The competition for influence in Africa is no longer a two-horse race. Alongside the established rivalry between Washington and Beijing, Gulf capital, Turkish logistics and Russian security services are all bidding for position, each offering a different bargain.
The proliferation of suitors works to Africa's advantage only where states negotiate from a clear sense of their own priorities. Where they do not, competition simply multiplies the number of dependencies.
This forecast maps the principal axes of competition over the coming decade and identifies the sectors — infrastructure, energy, digital and defence — where African leverage is greatest.
